Willy Adames signs huge contract

During the first week of December, the steady influx of free agency consisted almost entirely of pitchers and catchers. Other position players seemed understandably waiting for Juan Soto’s market as the price of Zoomer Ted Williams reportedly continues to rise. But when baseball’s celebrities descend on Dallas for the Winter Meetings, at least one star player will already have a new home.

Shortstop Willy Adames is now a San Francisco Giant. Adames was the No. 2 free agent on Ben Clemens’ top 50 list and the first major acquisition for new Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey. It’s a pretty splashy move; Adames’ seven-year, $182 million contract is the largest the Giants have ever handed out in terms of total value, surpassing the eight-year, $167 million contract extension that Posey himself signed in 2013.

Records are broken.

Over the last two offseasons, the Giants’ previous leadership under Farhan Zaidi navigated free agency in a manner that befitted the club’s semi-contender status. Zaidi failed in his attempt to bring Aaron Judge home, and the club backed out of a $300 million-plus contract with Carlos Correa. But the Giants waited last winter to sign Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, both with great success in 2024.

Posey, then a minority owner, helped sign Chapman to a six-year, $151 million deal in September of that year, just weeks before the 2012 MVP staged his palace coup and pushed Zaidi off the castle railings. Now he has guaranteed the best free agent infielder on the market an even bigger contract that includes a $22 million signing bonus. Whatever worries Posey may have for the rest of the 2020s, the left side of the infield won’t be one of them.

The dollar figure is fascinating; As much as we like Adames here at FanGraphs, Ben predicted a five-year payday of $145 million for the former Brewer. Our average crowdsource estimate was six years and $150 million – a higher total but a lower AAV. Seven years and $182 million is $26 million per year, or Ben’s number plus two years of $13.5 million each, if you want to look at it that way.

Another way to think of it is: That’s a lot of money for a player who never made an All-Star team, never posted a WAR season of 5.0 or better, never earned a Gold Glove or Silver Slugger won and never finished better than 10th in MVP voting.

Who would have seen that coming?

Well, if you’ll allow me a quick digression for a victory lap, that’s what I did! One of the very first articles I wrote for FanGraphs in September 2022 was about how Adames had quietly played his way into the upper echelon of shortstops and was on the verge of making $150 million or more when he entered the ranks moved to free agency.

I bring this up not just because I love being right, but because the logic I followed then (and in my follow-up column last March) still applies. And for Giants fans who are understandably unfamiliar with Adames’ portfolio, that logic answers the burning questions of “Who is this guy?” and “Why the hell is he making almost $200 million?”

Adames is a career .248/.322/.444 hitter. He’s a good defensive shortstop, but not a great one. His 21 stolen bases last season more than doubled his previous career high. If you’re looking for something Adames does at an elite level, you’re in for a long and frustrating time. However, if you want to know what Adames is good at, the answer is, “Basically everything.”

Furthermore, he is incredibly consistent. Every hitter has ups and downs within a season, and Adames is no exception. But from year to year it is metronomic. Since 2021, he has recorded at least 550 plate appearances, 20 home runs, and 3.0 or more WARs every year. Counting the pandemic-shortened 162-game 2020 season, that streak goes back six seasons, to Adames’ first full year in the majors.

Even I wouldn’t say Adames is one of the absolute top shortstops in the game, but you don’t have to be to get $26 million per year. Here’s what you might consider Adames’ comparison group: shortstops with big contracts, with their WAR in the three seasons prior to signing their current contracts.

Adames loses to the other players at this table (except Crawford) for highest single-season WAR, but everyone except Lindor has a catch. Seager, Correa and Story keep getting hurt. Báez left his bat in Chicago. Swanson is still an excellent defender, but his offense has regressed since he was traded to the Cubs, perhaps because he picked up the cursed bat that Báez left behind. Turner is so cunning that Phillies fans feel sorry for him. Bogaerts has a significantly longer contract. Witt is a steal at $26.3 million per year, but the Giants won’t be able to sign a player like him in free agency. (However, if the Orioles continue to fool around and let Gunnar Henderson walk, San Francisco might have a chance to get close in a few years.)

Posey comes to his job with no baseball experience and is so new that he hasn’t yet earned the benefit of the doubt. And make no mistake: He will have to do it. Posey is one of the best all-around baseball players I’ve ever seen, and he draws on everything he’s learned from more than a decade in the majors as well as two years on the Giants’ board. But playing baseball requires different skills than leading a team; When Posey took over the Giants, he had as much formal baseball operations experience as the guy behind you in line at 7-Eleven.

We’ve gotten to the point where it’s a rarity to have an ex-player at the helm of a team, especially someone who didn’t work his way up as a scout, coach or other analyst. Furthermore—and I say this without undue disrespect—retired superstars like Posey who are thrust into analysis or consulting roles can be impulsive and uninterested. It’s up to Posey to disprove the stereotype.

Given Posey’s lack of experience and Adames’ lack of star power for a player so high in the free agent rankings, it’s easy to view this signing as an overpayment by a baseball ops president who is already overextending is and it doesn’t notice it. I do not believe this is an untenable position, and over time it may prove to be the correct interpretation of the situation.

But I think that view underestimates two things: First, the $26 million a year isn’t what it used to be. Luis Severino just got $22.3 million a year from an A’s team too poor to afford a first name. Second, consistently above-average play may not be sexy, but it is valuable. Especially at shortstop. There’s a reason Adames has been a must-have for a playoff team in five of his six full seasons in the majors. And those Rays and Brewers clubs had far fewer resources than those Giants.

About these giants: They could use a little more star power. With Chapman, Adames, Jung Hoo Lee, Patrick Bailey and LaMonte Wade Jr., they have good players – even very good players – all over the field. But Logan Webb is the only player on the projected roster who poses a threat to win an MVP or a Cy Young. Posey and his team also reportedly want to sign a top free agent pitcher. (Hey, isn’t Corbin Burnes from California?)

If so, good – they could use another big name.

That’s a pretty charitable statement about a team that just gave the No. 1 pick the largest contract in franchise history. I realize there are two free agents on the market. But the NL West is tough to win right now. The Dodgers just won a championship and are only getting better. The Diamondbacks won the pennant in 2023, endured a horrific spate of slumps and injuries, and still improved their regular-season record by five games. The Padres are unpredictable as always, but they are one of the most talented teams in any division.

The Giants could be quite good in 2025 and still finish fourth in the division. Adding Adames’ name to the 150-game-a-year roster will go a long way toward defeating this formidable opponent.