Windy midweek storm that will be wetter than white in the Northeast

After rain, some snow and ice in the Northeast earlier in the week, AccuWeather forecasters are watching a stronger storm expected to hit the region beginning Tuesday night.

The storm will gain strength in the southeast as early as Tuesday. With warmth and humidity, thunderstorms are expected to rumble across southeastern Louisiana, southeastern Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia. While the overall risk is low, sufficient moisture combined with stronger winds in the upper atmosphere, which could be brought to the surface during heavier rainfall, could cause some thunderstorms to experience gusty winds.

The storm will continue to gain intensity as it moves north along a cold front later Tuesday and into Tuesday night. Ahead of the front, mild air flows north. This will significantly limit winter rainfall as moisture arrives on Tuesday night. Outside of Maine and Canada, liquid precipitation is expected to occur even in the mountainous areas of the Northeast on Tuesday night. Heavy rain, fog and temperatures above freezing will quickly melt any existing snow on the ground and can lead to flooding.

“After a cold, snowy start to December, there is concern for increased flood risk in areas with deep snow cover already in place, particularly in the downwind areas of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, which were buried under several feet of snow cover,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Grady Gilman.

“A wave of mild and moist air from the Gulf will follow a wave of low pressure along a front moving through the lower Mississippi Valley into the mid-Atlantic and up through the Northeast mid-week,” Gilman noted.

As the storm and associated cold front pushes east, the rain beginning Tuesday evening will become heavier and more steady along I-95 on Wednesday.

“Wednesday is shaping up to be a very wet day along the I-95 corridor from northern Florida to Maine,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger.

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Deger also warned that “both morning and evening commutes in cities such as Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York and Boston may be slowed by downpours, which may also cause localized flooding.”

Although the extent and amount of snow will be limited, colder air moving in on the back side of the storm could cause rain to turn to snow in the northeastern part of the country and in the mountains. Although amounts should be small, rapidly falling temperatures can cause previously wet roads to become icy.

“Arctic air will arrive quickly on the backside of the storm, and while it is not quite as cold and not quite as long-lasting as the previous cold air mass, there is a risk of rapid freezing across the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast,” Gilman said.

Regardless of the type and amount of precipitation, large areas of property will experience gusty winds. Winds will become stronger Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as the storm undergoes a more rapid period of strengthening.

“As the storm strengthens toward the north and east, there will be some gusty winds both ahead and behind the storm. “This, together with the rain, can lead to significant delays at airports,” warned Deger.

Aside from a brief snowfall following the rain in some locations, the cold air moving in from the storm will cause lake effect snow to form again. The shorter duration of the lake effect situation will limit snowfall amounts compared to events earlier in the month. However, some areas that lost most or all of the snow on the ground with the previous warmth will see more snow on the ground by the end of the week. Locally heavy snowfall and strong winds will result in hazardous travel.

The cold is expected to ease by the weekend and temperatures could rise above historical averages early next week.

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