World War III has already begun – and companies need to take note

The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s despotic regime in Syria this weekend highlights the interconnectedness of a growing number of global conflicts and reveals a hard truth that most of us would rather not think too deeply about: World War III has already begun.

Business leaders need to recognize this and plan accordingly.

I’m not the only one who believes that. In fact, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co., said the exact same thing a few weeks ago.

“The Third World War has already begun. There are already struggles on the ground that are being coordinated in several countries,” he told an audience at the International Institute of Finance in late October. “The risk is extraordinary.”

The defeat of the Russian-backed regime in Syria underscores Dimon’s point. Assad would certainly have been overthrown by the popular uprising that began in 2011 had it not been for the direct intervention of Russian forces in 2015. Since then, the Russians, along with Iran and its proxies, have managed to maintain an otherwise untenable dictatorship, killing thousands and displacing millions of civilians in the process.

Until they couldn’t anymore.

The war in Ukraine weakened Russia’s strength and diminished its ability to maintain the Assad regime, just as Russia’s successful defense of Stalingrad tested Germany’s military might and contributed to the loss of North Africa in 1943. Israel’s victory over Hezbollah and its attacks on Iran itself also made it difficult for Tehran to stay in the fight in Syria.

What we are beginning to see is an interconnectedness between conflicts as seemingly disparate as the war between Russia and Ukraine and the struggle between Israel and Hamas, the likes of which we have not seen since 1945. This trend is likely to continue and expand, drawing more conflicting countries and regions into the vortex.

That’s why I say that World War III has already begun – not because the United States is on the brink of war with Russia or China (although that could still happen).

Although these conflicts may appear different at first glance, they share some common features that justify considering them as components of a single, overarching global conflict. These include the involvement of major powers either directly or through proxies, the intertwining of political, economic and ideological goals, and the cascading effects of one conflict on others, creating a chain reaction of instability.

Similar to the early stages of previous world wars, these interconnected crises erode the boundaries between local and global conflicts, drawing nations and alliances into a broader struggle for dominance and survival. This is more than individual battles that make up a world war.

What does this mean for business?

Why should you care? Because this expanding global conflict will have an ever greater impact on your company. It will have an impact on the global economy. It will impact your supply chain. It will impact your customers.

This is already the case, directly or indirectly, and this impact will only increase as fighting expands.

As Dimon warned, “We cannot take the risk that the problem will solve itself.”

We must prepare – not tomorrow, but today.

Preparing for World War III means understanding the risks that a global conflict poses to your business. Once you understand these risks, you can modify your strategies to minimize these risks or develop contingency plans to mitigate them.

Preparing for World War III also means understanding the opportunities that a global conflict brings to your business. Recognizing opportunities in this context does not necessarily mean exploiting conflicts profitably, but rather identifying ways in which your company can make a positive contribution to overcoming these challenges.

Ethical options could include supporting humanitarian relief efforts, investing in technologies that increase supply chain resilience, or providing resources for reconstruction and infrastructure development in affected regions. These measures are not only consistent with corporate social responsibility, but also position your company as a trusted partner in recovery and resilience.

Business leaders must recognize that with every crisis there are opportunities, and that failing to recognize and exploit them can be just as dangerous as failing to recognize and mitigate the risks.

War and rumors of war

Although this conflict is becoming increasingly global in nature and scale, it will be very different from the world wars of the last century. As Clausewitz noted, “Each age had its own kind of war, its own borderline conditions, and its own peculiar prejudices.”

At least in the near future, things will likely continue in fits and starts. Trump may well force an end to the war in Ukraine, but I expect Russia will use this peace to rebuild and rearm before continuing its efforts to redraw the map of Europe. Fighting will soon resume, either in Ukraine or elsewhere along NATO’s Eastern Front.

If that happens, it will be even worse and the consequences will be greater and more far-reaching. That’s why a growing number of European leaders, from French President Emmanuel Macron to Britain’s new defense minister, General Sir Roly Walker, have begun warning that an all-out war with Russia is likely in the next few years.

As a business leader, you must not let temporary lulls in the fight fool you into thinking the crisis is over. Rather, we must all prepare for a new era of global conflict.