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WTC end scenarios – South Africa comes through, but what about India, Australia and Sri Lanka?

WTC end scenarios – South Africa comes through, but what about India, Australia and Sri Lanka?

South Africa’s thrilling two-wicket win over Pakistan at the Centurion confirmed their place in the final of the World Test Championship (WTC) in June. This means that only one place remains to be decided and three teams are in the race. Here’s a look at what India, Australia and Sri Lanka each need to do to qualify.

India

Percentage: 55.89, remaining games: Out (2 away)

For India to secure qualification, they need to win both remaining Tests in Melbourne and Sydney. They would then finish with 60.53, which would be more than Australia’s 57.02 even if they won their upcoming two-Test series in Sri Lanka 2-0. Sri Lanka’s points ceiling for this cycle is 53.85 – a tally they would eventually reach if they beat Australia at home.

If India wins one Test and draws the other, it will finish with 57.02; In such an event, they could lose second place to Australia, who would finish with 58.77 if they also won both Tests in Sri Lanka. For India to qualify with 57.02, Australia would need to score no more than 16 points (one win and one draw) in Sri Lanka.

A win and a loss in Australia would take India to 55.26, which would see Sri Lanka pin their hopes of at least a 1-0 lead against Australia.

Two draws would leave India at 53.51. Sri Lanka can go further with a 2-0 win, while Australia would need at least a win in Sri Lanka to beat them.

If India drew one Test and lost the other, it would finish with 51.75 and be out of the race; In such a case, Australia would finish ahead of India even if they lost 2-0 in Sri Lanka.

Australia

Percentage: 58.89, remaining games: Ind (2 home tests), SL (2 away tests)

If Australia were to win the Melbourne and Sydney Tests against India, they would be assured of qualifying for the WTC final – in such a case they would finish with 57.02 even if they lose 0-2 in Sri Lanka would.

A win and a draw against India would put them ahead of India even if they lost both Tests in Sri Lanka, but then Sri Lanka could move past Australia with a clean win.

Should Australia win once and lose once against India, they would need at least a win in Sri Lanka to stay ahead in the race. The same applies if both Tests against India are a draw.

If they drew one against India and lost the other, they would need two wins in Sri Lanka.

A loss in both Tests against India would force Australia out of the competition.

Sri Lanka

Percentage: 45.45, remaining games: Out (2 home games)

The maximum Sri Lanka can achieve is 53.85 if they beat Australia 2-0. For that to be enough for a second place, one of two scenarios must play out in the remaining Border-Gavaskar Trophy Tests:

  • Both Melbourne and Sydney produce draws
  • Australia wins one of the two home tests while the other is drawn

In any other scenario, either Australia or India would finish higher than 53.85 and eliminate Sri Lanka.

S Rajesh is Statistics Editor at ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats

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